Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2024 Study reveals how climate adaptation can be successful

Climate change is forcing people to adapt to altered environmental conditions. But how they do this is crucial. The recent Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2024 shows that only sustainable adaptation will be successful in the long term. The key study by the Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS) at the University of Hamburg makes practical recommendations.

“Successful adaptation to the consequences of climate change is just as difficult and challenging as reaching net-zero emissions – and both these tasks are essential,” says Prof Anita Engels, Professor of Sociology at the Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS) and author of the study, which was co-written by a total of 73 contributors.
Based on nine case studies (Nepal, Namibia, Lower Saxony, Sao Paulo, Ho Chi Minh City, Hamburg, North Frisia, Taiwan, The Maldives), CLICCS researchers analysed a wide range of measures for adapting to climate risks. None of the case studies examined can currently demonstrate a sustainable adaptation strategy. However, Hamburg, North Frisia and Ho Chi Minh City reveal initial approaches for a transformative – i.e. fundamental – adaptation. The research team also identified the key framework conditions for sustainable climate adaptation. “Sustainability isn’t just a nice extra,” says Prof Beate Ratter, Professor of Geography at CLICCS and co-author of the study. “If adaptation has not been thought through, side effects can undermine the results.” For example, certain coastal protection measures may initially help with flooding, but can wash away stabilising sediments or damage protective coral reefs in the long term. If forests are reforested using monocultures, they are extremely susceptible to parasite infestation.

The study divides the quality of adaptation measures into three categories: the first level (coping) is immediate crisis management, such as urgent action in the event of flooding or drought, for example. Second-level (incremental) responses are more forward-looking. In this case, preventive adaptations are gradually introduced with the intention of helping avoid negative climate impacts in the near future. Level three (transformative), sustainable adaptation, requires a fundamental reorganisation of structures and processes – a transformation. Such measures have a long-term impact, reduce risks and are co-designed and supported by the local population. They produce as few additional emissions as possible and are based on the UN Sustainability Goals (the so-called SDGs) so as not to cause damage elsewhere. For example, they preserve biodiversity and conserve natural resources.

There is also an urgent need for adaptation because the interaction between climate change and natural climate variations is already having a major impact on ecosystems and economies, as shown by the latest climate simulations from CLICCS. “In future, combined and compound extreme weather events may also occur,” says Prof. Jochem Marotzke, Climate Researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and co-author of the study. “This involves higher risks and may have disastrous consequences. We must prepare for these immediately.”

At the same time, CO2 emissions must be quickly and consistently reduced. But the world is making little progress. CLICCS first identified the ten key social processes that are important for this in 2021. Three of these in particular are currently preventing the achievement of the Paris Agreement goals: corporate strategies, consumption trends and a lack of divestment, i.e. the withdrawal of funding for fossil fuels. “Huge amounts are again being invested in oil, gas and coal. But the financial markets need to bet in the opposite direction. People need to be convinced that investments in fossil fuels are simply no longer profitable in the long term,” says Anita Engels. The only things that could help with this are legally binding rules and framework conditions issued by individual states and during United Nations climate negotiations.

What specific action can societies take? The analysis shows that social movements can result in politicians and companies setting stricter climate goals – by means of support or pressure. There also need to be measurable targets and clear commitments to reduce greenhouse gases, which are then implemented and monitored. This is the only way to achieve the urgently required quantum leap in climate protection. Climate litigation can initiate and accelerate this process. Even if societies become more socially equitable, the chances of successful climate protection and successful adaptation increase. And local residents should help develop the appropriate strategies; their knowledge, experience and involvement make a significant contribution to the success of any measures.

Original publication:

Engels, Anita; Jochem Marotzke; Beate Ratter; Eduardo Gonçalves Gresse; Andrés López-Rivera; Anna Pagnone; Jan Wilkens (eds.); (2024): Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2024. Conditions for Sustainable Climate Change Adaptation. Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS). transcript publishing, Bielefeld (Germany).
https://doi.org/10.14361/9783839470817