Editorial August

The expansion figures for onshore and offshore wind energy were released a few days ago. With a gross addition of 2.4 gigawatts, the capacity of onshore wind installations was approximately 7% higher than in the first half of 2025. This would be an encouraging development, if Germany’s political expansion target for onshore wind energy for 2026 were not 10 GW. This goal appears to remain a long way off, although the federal states have by now designated a large number of areas for onshore wind farms and many projects have already received permits. Overall, cost pressures resulting from wind farm auctions – compounded by the sharp rise in material prices in recent years – have led to a situation that is currently making expansion significantly more difficult.

In the offshore wind sector, installed capacity increased by 1,077 megawatts to 10.8 GW during the first half of the year. The important 10 GW milestone was thus surpassed – albeit significantly later than originally projected, and with an expansion outlook for 2030 and beyond that falls far short of meeting the targets. No final investment decisions have yet been made for the offshore wind sites that were awarded contracts in the 2024 and 2025 auctions, totalling over 17.5 GW. Unfortunately, it must be assumed that construction has become unlikely due to major price increases during the projects' long lead times, given that companies are required to sell the electricity directly on the market via purchase agreements. This is a challenging prospect under the current electricity market conditions, as interplay with the planned industrial electricity price is also to be expected. At present, however, these awarded sites remain tied up, as there is no provision for the bidding companies to return the awarded contracts. Offshore wind auctions were consequently suspended at the start of the year due to a lack of bidder interest.

We have thus reached a critical juncture in mid-2026 for the development of onshore and offshore wind energy: how can wind energy – the backbone of the energy transition achieved so far – regain momentum? The drafts currently on the table for the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), the grid package, and considerations regarding the Offshore Wind Energy Act have not yet been able to provide a satisfactory answer to this question. Without the planned expansion of onshore and offshore wind energy, fossil-fuel power plants will remain in operation for longer and in greater numbers, potentially delaying the planned coal phase-out. Consequently, the overall reduction in CO2 emissions is likely to be significantly lower than projected. This would necessitate the purchase of substantially more CO2 emission allowances within the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS). Furthermore, allowances under the ETS II system – set to launch in 2028 for smaller emitters in the heating and transport sectors – could end up being significantly more expensive for Germany than anticipated. A great deal is therefore at stake in the 2026 energy legislation. Time is of the essence, as the EU’s state-aid approval for the current EEG expires at the end of the year. Last but not least, the approximately 180,000 jobs in the onshore and offshore wind sectors should serve as a key reference point amidst the current, turbulent macroeconomic climate.